Analysis of the Affecting Factors on Housing Prices in Coastal Areas (Case Study: Urmia City)

Document Type : Research article - extracted from the dissertation

Authors

1 Ph. D student of Geography and Urban Planning, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Marand Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marand, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor of Department of Geography and urban planning, Marand branch, Islamic azad university, Marand,Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Malekan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Malekan, Iran.

Abstract

Housing sector and its price is influenced by many factors. These factors can be divided into supply and demand factors, and each of these factors includes many variables. Since the non-homogeneity of the housing market in all provinces, the evidence indicates that the housing market should be looked at regionally. This article aimed to analyze the factors affecting housing prices in Urmia. The research was applied with a descriptive-analytical approach, and various library methods, surveys, and interviews have been used to collect data. It was applied-developmental in terms of purpose and aimed to identify and build a conceptual model using structural equations (Smart PLS) for housing prices in Urmia and it was exploratory in nature. Also, it was a mixed methods research. The research population included 30 experts who were selected purposefully. The results showed that four social, physical, managerial, and economic components explain 70% of housing prices. In such a way that the combined coefficient of each component depends on other components as well. In other words, the composite coefficient showed to what extent the housing price growth in Urmia City has been affected by the shock on the economic component with other influential components. The analysis of the path coefficients related to the 4 investigated components showed that economic (E), managerial (M), physical (Ph), and social (S) components with values of 0.169, 0.014, 0.088, and 0.033 respectively have had the most impact on the housing prices in Urmia.

Highlights

- Any change in the activities of the housing sector can cause significant changes in related industries and services, the employment situation, and finally the economy of the country's households. Therefore, the fluctuations of the housing market under the influence of the macroeconomic structure of the country follow a special model.

- Regarding the relationship between the price of housing and land, the price of housing included the cost of land purchase, development cost, marketing cost, and development profit. Therefore, the price of land affects the price of housing as a part of housing costs.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

Abildgren, K., Hansen, N. L., and Kuchler, A. (2018). Overoptimism and house price bubbles. Journal of Macroeconomics, 56, pp. 1-14.
Ahmady, S., Abbassi, E., and Mohseni, R. (2020). A Review of the Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks and Asset Markets' Behavior on Affordability of Urban Housing Prices in Iran. QJERP, 28 (95), pp. 271-305. [In Persian]
Altuzarra, A., Esteban, M. (2011). Land prices and housing prices: the case of Spain. Journal of Housing and the Built Environment, 26(4), 397.
Asadpour, A. A. (2018). The effect of inflation uncertainty and macroeconomic variables on housing prices in Iran. Economic Growth and Development Research Quarterly, 9 (37), pp. 131-141. [In Persian]
Asgari, H., Almasi, I. (2011). Factors affecting the price of housing in urban areas using panel data (during the 1370 to 1385). Economics Research, 11(41), pp. 201-224. [In Persian]
Alimoradi afshar, P., Gholami hedariany, L. (2023). Investigating the convergence of housing prices in Iranian cities (spatial dynamic panel approach). JHRE, (180), pp. 43-56. [In Persian]
Baldauf, M., Garlappi, L., and Yannelis, C. (2020). Does climate change affect real estate prices? Only if you believe in it. The Review of Financial Studies, 33(3), pp. 1256-1295.
Bangura, M., Lee, C. L. (2023). Spatial connectivity and house price diffusion: The case of Greater Sydney and the regional cities and centres of new south wales (NSW) in Australia. Habitat International, 132, 102740.
Bogin, A., Doerner, W., and Larson, W. (2019). Local house price dynamics: New indices and stylized facts. Real Estate Economics, 47(2), pp. 365-398.
Bowen, W. M., Mikelbank, B. A., and Prestegaard, D. M. (2001). Theoretical and empirical considerations regarding space in hedonic housing price model applications. Growth and change, 32(4), pp. 466-490.
Caballero, R. J., Simsek, A. (2020). A risk-centric model of demand recessions and speculation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(3), pp. 1493-1566.
Capozza, D. R., Hendershott, P. H., Mack, C., and Mayer, C. J. (2002). Determinants of real house price dynamics. In: National Bureau of Economic Research Cambridge, Mass., USA.
Chen, Q., Feng, L., Li, Z., and Lin, C. Y. (2020). Housing prices and trade surpluses in China: An inter-temporal approach. Journal of International Money and Finance, 110, 102284.
Dahmardeh, N., Khaki, R. (2014). Modeling volatility housing price in Iarn and predicted fluctuations price application of family patterns ARCH. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 49(4), pp. 751-774. [In Persian]
Esmailpoor, N., Zare Rodd Bazani, M., and Nasrian, Z. (2017). Investigation and Analysis of Urban Housing Policies in Asia's East and Southeast Countries. Building Engineering & Housing Science, 11(4), pp. 19-33. [In Persian]
Fanni, Z., Kuzegar, L., and Samanimajd, A. (2020). Comparative analysis of indicators of sustainable housing and urban renewal in old tissue (Abatik and Punak Neighborhood Study). Scientific-research quarterly of research and urban planning, 11(42), pp. 137-152. [In Persian]
Farahmand, Shokoofeh and Foroughi, Ferdous. (2018). Spatial analysis of the effective factors of housing price in Iran, the weighted regression approach of geography, the third urban planning and management conference, Mashhad. https://civilica.com/doc/125037. [In Persian]
Ghaderi, J., Izady, B. (2016). Studying the Effects of Social and Economic Factors on the Housing Prices in Iran (1972-2013). Urban Economics, 1(1), pp. 55-75. [In Persian]
Girouard, N., Blöndal, S. (2001). House prices and economic activity.
Girouard, N., Kennedy, M., Van Den Noord, P., and André, C. (2006). Recent house price developments: the role of fundamentals. OECD Economic Outlook.
Gholizadeh, A. A., Manochehri, S., and Jafari seresht, D. (2023). Time-varying effects of factors influencing speculation in Iran's housing market: state-space models. Journal of Econometric Modelling, 7(4), pp. 119-142. [In Persian]
Glaeser, E. L., Nathanson, C. G. (2017). An extrapolative model of house price dynamics. Journal of Financial Economics, 126(1), pp. 147-170.
HasanGoodarzi, S., Armanmehr, M. (2019). Market analysis and forecasting of housing prices in Tehran. Journal of Iranian Economic Issues, 5(2), pp. 79-103. [In Persian]
Heffernan, E., De Wilde, P. (2020). Group self-build housing: A bottom-up approach to environmentally and socially sustainable housing. Journal of cleaner production, 243, 118657.
Heydari, Z., Davoodi, P. (2021). Investigating the Effect of Banks' Speculative Behavior on the Stock Price Index during the Period (1392-1398). Journal of Iran's Economic Essays (JIEE), 18(36), pp. 1-15. [In Persian]
Hjalmarsson, E., Österholm, P. (2020). Heterogeneity in households’ expectations of housing prices–evidence from micro data. Journal of Housing Economics, 50, 101731.
Hekmat, B., Farahmand, S., and Akbari, N. (2022). Spatial analysis of housing prices in 22 urban districts of Tehran. Journal of Economics and Regional Development, 28(22), pp. 110-130. [In Persian]
Hoesli, M., Malle, R. (2022). Commercial real estate prices and COVID-19. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 15(2), pp. 295-306.
Iran Statistics Center. (2016). Iran Statistics Center website: https://www.amar.org.ir/. [In Persian]
Izadkhasti, H., Arab Mazar, A., and Refahi, M. (2021). Investigating the Factors Affecting Housing rent in Urban Areas of Iran with Emphasis on Urban Grouping. JEMR, 12 (45), pp. 53-82. [In Persian]
Jafari Samimi, A., Elmi, Z., and Hadizade, A. (2007). Affecting Factors on House Price Index. Iranian Journal of Economic Research, 9(32), pp. 31-53. [In Persian]
Karimi, R., Abedini, A. (2015). Evaluation and Ranking Four Regions of the Urmia City, Based on Quantitative and Qualitative Housing Indicators. Journal of Urban - Regional Studies and Research, 6(24), pp. 49-64. [In Persian]
Khajeh Shahkohi, A., Mahdavi, S.h. (2012). Analysis of factors influencing the increase in land prices in urban areas (case study: Kashan city). Scientific and Research Quarterly of New Attitudes in Human Geography, 4 (4), pp. 153-169. [In Persian]
Khaliji, M., Sarvar, R., and Zarabadi, Z. S. (2018). Analysis on the Types of Fragmentations and their Effectiveness on the Integrated Fulfillment Management of the Capital Suburb. Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning, 13(2), pp. 283-303. [In Persian]
Khalili Eraghi, S. M., Komijani, A., Mehrara, M., and Azimi, S. R. (2013). The Relationship between Energy Intensity and Economic Efficiency in the Selected Countries Using GMM: An Application of DEA Window Analysis. QJERP, 21 (67), pp. 25-48. [In Persian]
Khandan, M., Jahanshahloo, L., and Zabihi, H. (2019). Analyze the factors affecting the increase of urban land rent in district one in Tehran metropolitan. Geography (Regional Planning), 9(2), pp. 255-239. [In Persian]
Knoll, K., Schularick, M., and Steger, T. (2017). No price like home: Global house prices, 1870–2012. American Economic Review, 107(2), pp. 331-353.
Li, H., Wei, Y. D., Wu, Y., and Tian, G. (2019). Analyzing housing prices in Shanghai with open data: Amenity, accessibility and urban structure. Cities, 91, pp. 165-179.
Leung, C. K. Y., Tang, E. C. H. (2023). The dynamics of the house price‐to‐income ratio: Theory and evidence. Contemporary Economic Policy, 41(1), pp. 61-78.
Meshkini, A., Khaliji, M. A. (2016). Assessment of housing in Bonab Districts by Cluster Analysis. Human Geography Research, 48(4), pp. 617-629. [In Persian]
Mohamadzadeh, P., Panahi, H., and Aleemran, S. (2016). The Relationship between Land Prices and Housing Prices in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 3(1), pp. 89-114. [In Persian]
Mousavi, M. H. M., Khezri, A., Raghfar, H., and Sangari Mohazab, K. (2023). The Simulation of Housing price in Tehran: An Spatial Agent Based Approach. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 58(1), pp. 151-183. [In Persian]
Mousavi, M., doroodian, H. (2016). Analyzing the Determinants of Housing Prices in Tehran City. Economic Modelling, 9(31), pp. 103-127. [In Persian]
Oikarinen, E. (2014). Studies on housing price dynamics.
Park, B., Bae, J. K. (2015). Using machine learning algorithms for housing price prediction: The case of Fairfax County, Virginia housing data. Expert systems with applications, 42(6), pp. 2928-2934.
Pourahmad, A., Khaliji, M. A. (2014). The assessment factors in improving urban services by VIKOR (case study Bonab). Spatial Planning, 4(2), pp. 1-16. [In Persian]
Pourmohammadi, M., Sadr Mousavi, M., and Abedini, A. (2012). Analytical Consideration on Policies of Housing Supply by Government with Respect to the Cultural and Socioeconomic Development plans in Iran. Motaleate Shahri, 1(3), pp. 34-43. [In Persian]
Qolizadeh, A. A., Bakhtiaripour, S. (2012). The effect of loans on housing prices in Iran. Iranian Applied Economic Studies Quarterly, 1 (3), pp. 161-181. [In Persian]
Samadipour, S., Gholizadeh, A., and Sepehrdoust, H. (2023). Investigating the Impact of Behavioral Factors on the Iranian Housing Price. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 12(46), pp. 241-274. [In Persian]
Sadeghloo, T., Bazargan, M. (2016). Assessment of the Impacts of Urban Design Quality Components on Housing Prices (Case Study: In Thirteen Districts in Mashhad). Geographical Urban Planning Research (GUPR), 4(4), pp. 717-742. [In Persian]
Sarvar, R., Khaliji, M. A. (2023). Pathology of Land Use Planning in Guilan province. Geographical Studies of Coastal Areas Journal, 3(4), pp. 1-20. [In Persian]
Sarwar, R. (2022) Political economy and integrated management of the metropolitan area of Tehran. Journal of Urban Economics, 6 (1), pp. 27-40. [In Persian]
Skulmoski, G. J., Hartman, F. T., and Krahn, J. (2007). The Delphi method for graduate research. Journal of Information Technology Education: Research, 6(1), pp. 1-21.
Statistical Yearbook of Urmia City. (2015) Urmia Municipality, Deputy of Statistics and Information. [In Persian]
Statistics Center of Iran, General Census of Population and Housing. (2016). detailed results of census of urban areas, West Azarbaijan, Urmia city. [In Persian]
Stroebel, J., Vavra, J. (2019). House prices, local demand, and retail prices. Journal of Political Economy, 127(3), pp. 1391-1436.
Taleblou, R., Mohammadi, T., and Pirdayeh, H. (2017). Analysis of Spatial Diffusion of Housing Price Changes in Iranian Provinces; Spatial Econometrics Approach. Economics Research, 17(66), pp. 55-95. [In Persian]
Tsatsaronis, K., Zhu, H. (2004). What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence? BIS Quarterly Review, March.
Wang, Z., Zhang, F., and Zhao, Y. (2023). Exploring the Spatial Discrete Heterogeneity of Housing Prices in Beijing, China, based on Regionally Geographically Weighted Regression Affected by Education. Land, 12(1), 167.
Xu, X., Zhang, Y. (2022). Network analysis of housing price comovements of a hundred Chinese cities. National Institute Economic Review, pp. 1-19.
Xu, X., Zhang, Y. (2022). Second-hand house price index forecasting with neural networks. Journal of Property Research, 39(3), pp. 215-236.
Yang, L., Khaskheli, A., Raza, S. A., and Shah, N. (2023). Panel smooth transition regression approach to analyzing tourism development–housing price nexus in G7 countries. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 16(1), pp. 218-231.
Yang, Z., Pan, Y. (2020). Human capital, housing prices, and regional economic development: Will “vying for talent” through policy succeed? Cities, 98, 102577.

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics