Explaining the Future Scenarios for Transferring Zab River to Lake Urmia

Document Type : Research article - extracted from the dissertation

Authors

1 PhD student, Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Scientific staff of Water Research Institute, Ministry of Energy, Tehran, Iran. E-mail

Abstract

The mismanagement and unsustainable exploitation of the water resources of Lake Urmia basin along with climate change has led to a substantial reduction in the water level of this lake. Over the past decade and a half, different plans have been implemented to improve the natural condition of Lake Urmia, among which is the plan to transfer the Zab River water to this lake. The research method was descriptive-analytical using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software, which develops and examines the future scenarios for transferring Zab River to Lake Urmia. The results indicated that out of 24 possible situations related to four scenarios with strong and probable compatibility, there were situations that represented desirable and critical conditions for the future inter-basin transfer scenarios from the Zab River to Lake Urmia. Intermittent conditions (semi-optimal, static, and critical) accounted for a negligible percentage. Accordingly, for the optimal situation, a scenario of comprehensive management of water resources and accurate planning has been formulated, aiming to improve the natural condition of Lake Urmia and, consequently, the economic, social, and political situation of this basin without harming the Zab River basin and its dependent areas. For the critical state, a scenario of transferring the Zab River to Lake Urmia has been developed, leading to disruption in the balance of the natural, economic, socio-cultural, and political ecosystem of the Zab River basin, and the desired outcome is not achieved in the Lake Urmia basin.

Highlights

  • Taking advantage of available resources and the perspective of executive and academic experts in identifying research variables.
  • Using future research software to explain research scenarios.Highlights, Highlights, Highlights, Highlights, Highlights, Highlights

Keywords

Main Subjects

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