The Impact of Water Crisis in Ghezel Ozan Basin on the Future Water Security of Guilan Province

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 1. Associate Professor, Political Geography, Department of Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Ph. D, Political Geography, Department of Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

3 Ph. D Student in Political Geography, Department of Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran.

10.22124/gscaj.2025.27899.1311

Abstract

The sustainability of life, habitats, and the persistence of living organisms in their broader concept on Earth's land is entirely depend on the limited freshwater resources. Meanwhile, due to the intertwining and synergy of a series of local and global issues, access to water resources has decreased. Therefore, the continuation of this situation has seriously challenged the security, development, welfare, and function of geographical ecosystems. Iran's dry geographical location, along with increased consumption of limited water resources, has plunged the country into the water crisis. However, the impact of this situation has shown differently in various regions. This article examines the reflection of the Ghezel Ozan basin water crisis on the water security of Guilan province. A province whose water security and economy largely depend on this river. The required research data was collected through library and field methods and analyzed using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software, and the research methodology is descriptive-analytical. In this context, variables such as uncontrolled dam construction upstream, digging unauthorized wells around the river, not using modified seeds with lower water needs, changes in precipitation patterns and climate changes, non-observance of environmental water rights, and threats arising from improper use of pesticides and fertilizers were selected as key variables. In line with the key variables and possible probable states, the output of Scenario Wizard software in the form of strong and probable scenarios showed that out of 21 situations governing the scenario page, situations that express scenarios facing the Ghezel Ozan water crisis on Guilan province's water security as approaching a critical threshold. Anticipating future developments related to this situation, from a foresight perspective, requires addressing government management and economic policies, as well as the approaches of national and local stakeholders in optimizing water resource management and mitigating the effects of key contributing factors.

Highlights

-Natural and human factors (water resources management) are two important factors in creating tension and water crisis in Guilan province.

-Sefidroud Dam has a very influential and important role in the sustainable development of Guilan province.

- The natural environment and diverse plant and animal habitats of Guilan province are under threat from the water crisis.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Geographical Studies of Coastal Areas Journal
Volume 6, Issue 3 - Serial Number 22
September 2025
Pages 43-60

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