Investigating the security chakkenges of drought and water crisis in khuzestan

Document Type : Research article - extracted from the dissertation

Authors

1 PhD student of geography and urban planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.

10.22124/gscaj.2025.25366.1263

Abstract

Today, climate change is considered as the main threat to water security in the world. The future peace and security of the world is the closely related to the issue of weather and climate change. the water shortage crisis is a crisis that both Iran and the international community are facing in varying degrees. Due to the location of Khuzestan province in the arid and semi- arid region of the west of the country, as well as successive droughts, in terms of water resources and the supply of drinking water, agriculture and industry have faced a kind of crisis.
This has made it necessary to investigate and explain the security consequences of drought and water tensions resulting from it in Khuzestan province. In terms of purpose, this research is fundamental applied, and in terms of data it is considered a quantitative and qualitative (mixed) type of research. Which has been done in a descriptive- analytical way, and document research and field studies (questionnaires, interviews) have been used to collect data. In this research, in the first part, using statistical tests, the effect of drought and water stress on security in Khuzestan province was discussed. Then, using the swat method in order to analyze the strengths and weaknesses, threats and opportunities of khuzestan province in facing the effects and consequences of drought.
The findings of the research show that, in the context of the impact of drought and water tensions resulting from it on the security of Khuzestan province, it should be said; the greatest impact on the change of land use with and average of 3.70 and the decrease in the amount of investment in the province with an average of 3.41, and the least impact on the aggravation of financial poverty and income sources The decrease in the quality of water resources in the province respectively with the averages of 2.47 and has had 2.96. according to the scoring of the existing items from the swat model, a total score of 1.66 internal factors (0.632 strengths and 1.33 weaknesses) and 1.90 external factors (0.776 opportunities and 1.13 threats) has been obtained; increase in the price of inputs, decrease in cultivated area of crops, increase in stress  and psychological pressure, insecurity and decrease in purchasing power, decrease in the quality of water resources have had a greater impact than drought and water stress in the region. These factors had a high priority. The findings of the research show that the water crisis in this province can lead to ethnic, local, national and regional tensions, increase in immigration, increase in crime rate, lack of trust in the central government, etc.

Highlights

.Socio-economic factors are the most affected by droughts and water crisis in the region-

- Water tension in Khuzestan province can provide the basis for the escalation of ethnic and trible conflicts and tension.

Keywords

Main Subjects


Asiai, M. (2015). Drought monitoring in Mashhad, Journal of Geography and Regional Development. Fourth year, seventh issue, pp. 186-168. [In Persian].
Shi, C., Guo, N., Zeng, L., & Wu, F. (2022). How climate change is going to affect urban livability in China. Climate Services, 26, 100284.‏
Combs, S. (2000). Drought resource information packet, Texas Department of Agriculture, USA.
Dalby, Si. (2013). Sources and environmental wars of the future, translated by Faezeh Bahri, Tehran, monthly report of conversation, third year. [In Persian].
Doostan, R., Asad, M. & Etimadian, E. (2013). Examining the drought situation in Iran using the Spi index in the cold period of the year and its relationship with the water crisis, the second national water crisis conference, Kurd Shahr University. [In Persian].
Edossa, D. C., Babel, M. S., & Gupta, A. D. (2010). Drought analysis in the Awash River basin, Ethiopia, Water Resource Manage, 24, 1441-1460.
Gohari, A., Madani, K., Mirchi, A., & Bavani, A. M. (2014). System-Dynamics approach to evaluate climate change adaptation strategies for Iran’s Zayandeh-Rud Water System. In: Proceedings of the World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2014, 1598–1607.
Garrido, A., & Gómez-Ramos, A. (2009). Risk management instruments supporting drought planning and policy. In Coping with Drought Risk in Agriculture and Water Supply Systems (pp. 133-151). Springer Netherlands.
Hosseini, S. H. (2015). How is a crisis defined? Security Quarterly, number one. [In Persian].
Hassan. L., & Ali, M. (2013). Climate change and its consequences on water resources and environment. Mashhad Academic Jihad Publications, pp. 93-120. [In Persian].
Hekmat, N., Hassan. & Mousavi, M. (2007). Application of the model in geography with an emphasis on urban planning, p. 120. [In Persian].
Janparvar, M., Salehabadi, R., & Zargari, M. (2017). Migration Crisis Caused By Short-Term Droughts In Sistan And Baluchestan Province.‏ [In Persian].
Jamali, S., Abrishamchi, A., Marino, M. A., & Abbasnia, A. (2013, February). Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of Karkheh Basin, Iran. In Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers-Water Management (Vol. 166, No. 2, pp. 93-104). Thomas Telford Ltd.‏
Kardavani, p. (2008). Water resources and issues in iran, samit publications. [In Persian].
Kaviani rad, m. (2008). Spatial analysis of environmental hazards and ecological crises in Iran.  Strategic studies quarterly, year 13, number2. [In Persian].
Khodagholi M, Kavousi M, Arvin a A, Sabouhi R. (2013). Investigation of Teleconnection between SOI and NAO Signals and Droughts in Zayanderoud Watershed Basin. Jwmseir 2013; 7 (21):41-52. [In Persian]. URL:http://jwmsei.ir/article-1-259-fa.html
Fatemi, M., & Karami, E. (2010). A case study of the causes and effects of drought. Iranian Agricultural Extension and Education Sciences, 6(2), p. 88. [In Persian].
King, A. D., & Harrington, L. J. (2018). The inequality of climate change from 1.5 to 2°C of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 45, 5030–5033. Doi: 10.1029/2018GL078430.
Khoshji, M.F., & Akbary, M. (2020). Impacts of global warming on extreme temperatures in west of Iran. Climate Change Research. 1(4): 11-19. DOI: 10.30488/CCR.2020.237152.1008.
Mireshkaran, Y. (2019). The effect of climate change on the security-policy consequences of the water resource crisis with an emphasis on the hydropolitics of border areas. Golestan University Scientific Quarterly Journal of Climate Change Research, first year, number 2, pp. 79-89. [In Persian].
Moradi, H., Maleki, S., & Amanpour, S. (2023). The co ceptual framework for measuring and evaluating urban water security (case study: Ahvaz metropolis). Environmental Sciences, 21(4), 203-220.doi: 10.48308/envs.2023.1317. [In Persian].
Maleki, S., & Moradi, H. (2023). Evaluating the social security of metropolises in the conditions of climate change using the system dynamics model (case study: Ahvaz etropolis). Journal of Urban Social Geography, 10(2), 145-166. doi: 10.22103/JUSG.2023.2108. [In Persian].
Moradi, H., & Maleki, S. (2024). Socio-economic consequences of climate change in urban spaces using system dynamics model (case study: Ahvaz metropolis). Urban Space and Social Life, (), -.
 Doi: 10.22034/jprd.2024.62937.1116. [In Persian].
Nguyen, T., & Huong, T. (2017). Education to increase climate change adaptation for a Vietnamese community's coastal members. PhD thesis, James Cook University.
Pauw, K., Thurlow, J., &Van Seventer, D. (2010). Droughts and floods in Malawi (No. 962). International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Razzaghi, R. (2017). Analysis of the security consequences of the water crisis in South Khorasan. South Khorasan Police Knowledge Quarterly, year 7, number 3, page 41. [In Persian].
Saleh, I., & mokhtari, D. (2008). Effects and economic consequences of drought on rural households in sistan region. Iranian journal of agricultural extension sciences and education, volume 3, number 1, pp,99. [In Persian].
Sadeghi, S.S. (2008). Hydropolitics and the water crisis: future challenges in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. Political-Economic Quarterly, No. 116-115. [In Persian].
Tánago, I. G., Urquijo, J., Blauhut, V., Villarroya, F., & De Stefano, L. (2016). Learning from experience: a systematic review of assessments of vulnerability to drought. Natural Hazards, 80(2): 951-973.
Thomas, T., Jaiswal, R. K., Galkate, R., Nayak, P. C., & Ghosh, N. C. (2016). Drought indicators-based integrated assessment of drought vulnerability: a case study of Bundelkhand droughts in central India. Natural Hazards, 81(3): 1627-1652.
Siegfried, T., Bernauer, T., Guiennet, R., Sellars, S., Robertson, A. W., Mankin, J., ... & Yakovlev, A. (2012). Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia? Climatic Change, 112, 881-899.‏
Walker, M., & Thers, A. (1996). Drought as a Natural Hazard, Drought: A Global Assessment, 1(5), 3-18.
Zhang, Q., Sun, P., Li, J., Xiao, M., & Singh, V. P. (2015). Assessment of drought vulnerability of the Tarim River basin, Xinjiang, China. Theoretical and applied climatology, 121 (1-2): 337-347.
Zarghami, M., Abdi, A., Babaeian, I., Hassanzadeh, Y., & Kanani, R. (2011). Impacts of climate change on runoffs in East Azerbaijan, Iran. Global and Planetary Change, 78(3-4), 137-146.‏