Investigating Temporal-Spatial Changes in the Probability of Precipitation Durations in Iran

Document Type : Research article - extracted from the dissertation

Authors

1 Phd Student in Climatology, Department of Geography, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Geography, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran

3 Assocait Professor of Environmental science, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

10.22124/gscaj.2024.24732.1245

Abstract

Precipitation as one of the most important climatic variables in Iran is characterized by complex temporal-spatial patterns. In this research, in order to investigate one of these complex aspects, possible changes in Iran's precipitation, as well as the probability and trend of 1 to 7 days of precipitation were selected and investigated. For this purpose, the Esfazāri database of the third edition (the result of interpolation of daily precipitation data of 2188 collocation, climate, and rain gauge stations of the Meteorological Organization for forty-six years, 1971-2016 was used. First, in order to investigate changes in precipitation, the probability of occurrence, and the number of rainy days in relation to spatial factors (length, width and height), a linear regression model was used. Then, in order to check the continuity, a rainy day (a day whose Precipitation is more than the average Precipitation of that day in each pixel of the map) was determined. Based on the Markov method, the probability of rainy days and the probability of rain continuing for 1 to 7 days were calculated and its general map was drawn for Iran. The results of the investigation of the probability of occurrence of 1-7 days' duration indicated that the probability of occurrence of precipitation with 1-day duration for most regions of Iran was more than other precipitation durations. Despite the fact that the southwest of the Caspian Sea has the highest annual and daily precipitation in Iran, the probability of continuous one-day precipitation (more than 10%) was higher in the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. It should be noted that the southwestern part of the Caspian Sea has the highest annual and daily Precipitation in Iran. In longer durations, although the possibility of precipitation existed for the entire country, the highest probability of precipitation was observed along the Caspian Sea coast. In the trend of 1-7 days of precipitation, the highest percentage of changes was related to the northern coasts, the northwest of Iran, and parts of southeastern Iran (Sistān and Baluchestān, and Hormozgān).

Highlights

The probability of occurrence of 1 to 7 days' precipitation duration is more related to the Caspian coast

- The trend of changes in the probability of 1 to 7 days' precipitation duration in the north and northwest coasts and areas of southeast Iran

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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