Reflection of the water crisis in Qezl Ozan catchment on the future of Gilan province

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 kharazmi univercity

2 Kharazmi univercity

10.22124/gscaj.2025.27899.1311

Abstract

This article examines the reflection of the Qezel Ozan basin water crisis on the water security of Gilan province. A province whose water security and economy largely depend on this river. The required research data was collected through library and field methods and analyzed using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software, and the research methodology is descriptive-analytical. In this context, variables such as uncontrolled dam construction upstream, digging unauthorized wells around the river, not using modified seeds with lower water needs, changes in precipitation patterns and climate changes, non-observance of environmental water rights, and threats arising from improper use of pesticides and fertilizers were selected as key variables. In line with the key variables and possible probable states, the output of Scenario Wizard software in the form of strong and probable scenarios showed that out of 21 situations governing the scenario page, situations that express scenarios facing the Qezel Ozan water crisis on Gilan province's water security as on the verge of crisis, cover the most possible probable situations and accounted for 38.095% of the situations governing the scenario page. Therefore, the impact of the water crisis on the province's future water security was manifested as on the verge of crisis. Predicting the future developments related to this situation from a futurology perspective requires addressing the government's management and economic policies and the approach of national-local agents in optimal management of water resources and controlling the reflection of key factors.

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Geographical Studies of Coastal Areas Journal

Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 22 August 2025

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