Document Type : Research Article - Case Study
Author
Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of , Human Sciences , Golestan University, Gorgan, Iran.
Abstract
The aim of this research is to investigate land use changes in the past and evaluate the effectiveness of the Geomod model in modeling and predicting land use changes. Forecasting the state of forest use change for the year 2021 was done using the land use maps of 1989 and 2001 with the help of geomed model and based on logistic regression. For this purpose, the spatial variables of distance from the road, distance from the river, distance from rural areas, distance from urban areas, distance from the edge of the forest, elevation, slope, and slope direction were used as factors affecting changes in logistic regression. The Kappa coefficient obtained from the classification of 1989, 2000 and 2021 was 0.88, 0.91 and 0.87, respectively. Evaluation of logistic regression performance using two indices of Pseudo-R2 and ROC with values of 0.34 and 0.85 for the first period and 0.35 and 0.87 for the second period, respectively, showing the relative agreement of the obtained model with real changes and the appropriate ability of the model in estimating forest changes in the past 32 years. The results showed that in the period of 1989-2021, about 33,853 hectares of forest area has been reduced, and in the period of 2021-2051, the area of forests will decrease by 15,047 hectares. The results related to the simulation of the land cover map of the year 2021 showed that the Geomod model has a high ability and capability in modeling land cover changes.
Highlights
- Monitoring and investigation of land use changes in forest areas provides acceptable information for efficient management of these resources.
- The results of this research showed that during the years 1989 to 2021, the studied area has undergone extensive changes, and the majority of these changes were in the direction of forest degradation, and the reason for the decrease in the extent of forest lands in the studied period was the development of residential areas and agricultural lands in it the area.
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