Identification of Influential and Key Driving Forces on the Developmental Process with a Regional Foresight Approach (Case study: Mazandaran province)

Document Type : Research article - extracted from the dissertation

Authors

1 Ph.D. Student, Department of Geography, Chalous Branch, Islamic Azad University, Chalous, Iran.

2 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Mahshahr Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mahshahr, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Chalous Branch, Islamic Azad University, Chalous, Iran

Abstract

Futurology in regional development and planning emphasizes finding key factors, driving forces, and lack of certainties of regional development in the planning space so that the urban and regional planners can use them as controllers, mapping, and managing the desired future. The aim was to identify the indicators of the impact on the feasibility of the development of Mazandaran province and to identify the key planning variables of the province. This research was applied in terms of purpose, and it was a combination of documentary and survey. In terms of nature, it was analytical and exploratory based on new futurology science, which has been done using a mixed method of quantitative and qualitative models. Due to the nature of this research, MIC MAC and Delphi structural analysis have been used. In this regard, after holding initial discussion sessions with fifteen active executive managers of the province, faculty members and planning experts at various levels with expertise in economics, social planning, sociology of economics and development, urban and regional planning, environment, industrial and commercial management as research population, 39 primary variables were identified in the form of six indicators of economic, social, infrastructure, residential, environmental and extensions. Then, the primary variables were defined in the context of the cross-impact matrix in the futurism software. What can be understood from the status of the variable scattering plane is the system's instability that most of the variables are scattered around the diagonal axis. Finally, due to the high direct and indirect impact score, 18 key factors affect the future of regional development in Mazandaran province. Among these factors, participation is the most influential key factor in the region's development. The activity structure, employment, economy, and migration are in the following ranks, respectively.

Keywords

References

 
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Geographical Studies of Coastal Areas Journal
Volume 2, Issue 4 - Serial Number 7
February 2022
Pages 61-88

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